Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3663176db933bcd12dccd24868f03779a6feb38d4b48ceec319b554948dd2279
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 58c | 178.26$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 44c | 126.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 56c | 122.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 115.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 48c | 102.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 92.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 43c | 90.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 41c | 89.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 83.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 64c | 82.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 59c | 69.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 61.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 58.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 57.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 41c | 56.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 56.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…1d16backed Yes | 31c | 52.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 52.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 42c | 47.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 44.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 56c | 44.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…64c4backed Yes | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 43c | 39.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 30.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 30.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe442…1e49backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 58c | 27.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 23.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 60c | 19.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 19.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 62c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.