Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8261befa35dae08761612de8b2594076a2713768f4ce7071113db7847fda23c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 69c | 1,312$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.28 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 531.31$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.62 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 23c | 364.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…8e69backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 31c | 293.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.83 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 7c | 284.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.65 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 279.38$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.41 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 24c | 274.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.35 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 255.46$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.34 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 219.95$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 180.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 71c | 157.11$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…7e29backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +178.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 29c | 40.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked No | 73c | 23.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?No won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.