Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7afaeb47dd8df9553deb7afee305fbaa4a469eeec8ae3785787a1ec6a9a18b2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 55c | 19,623$10,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,833.88 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 8,452$5,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,433.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 44c | 7,123$3,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.28 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.92 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 17c | 415$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 73c | 388.73$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 44c | 381.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.07 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 311.89$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 36c | 302.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.98 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 62c | 297.38$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.65 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 12c | 271.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 45c | 215.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed Yes | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…a88cbacked Yes | 43c | 163.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…2281backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…2127backed Yes | 34c | 85.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 56c | 70.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 44c | 68.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 35c | 65.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…6337backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0375…0528backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d44…2f97backed No | 66c | 24.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 71c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.