Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c20ea0bbedd87d6353a6a24d8cd2d3027fc989ec6544100222c09888b64b43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,002$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 1,818$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Yes | 32c | 1,546$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 74c | 1,340$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.39 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 50c | 900$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 55c | 824.86$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.58 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Yes | 4c | 700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 696.33$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 26c | 599.48$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.86 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 209.67$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 204$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…5f54backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 63c | 140.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Yes | 30c | 113.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 51c | 59.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 52.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked No | 43c | 34.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…279ebacked No | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…642abacked No | 40c | 27.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed No | 74c | 24.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked No | 66c | 18.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 64c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.