NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82640ce6ad10a7acaab3289f0c3039647bb30cf8ffc21150519a458868435eec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Seahawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Seahawks | 51c | 10,827$5,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,534.08 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked 49ers | 49c | 9,964$4,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,081.75 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed Seahawks | 53c | 7,869$4,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,168.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed 49ers | 47c | 7,689$3,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,076.49 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…0d60backed Seahawks | 54c | 1,895$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed 49ers | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.99 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed 49ers | 46c | 646$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.72 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked 49ers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed 49ers | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed 49ers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed 49ers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed 49ers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed 49ers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked 49ers | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Seahawks | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…6887backed Seahawks | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Seahawks | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Seahawks | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…5ceebacked Seahawks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed 49ers | 54c | 36.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed 49ers | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Seahawks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seahawks | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)this page
- 49ers vs. Seahawks49ers won
- 49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.