Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82b184cf1ec7ba9cb60fb3e9c290ea3c4d8809a1cf4b760cb9aa1ba13390a945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 58c | 1,017$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.71 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked No | 62c | 961.89$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.6 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 697.2$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 436.88$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.58 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 28c | 204.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.27 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 21c | 195.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 192.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 181.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 77c | 171.05$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 158.68$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 115.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 110.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 101.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 29c | 96.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 21c | 79.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 61.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 18c | 59.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 21c | 58.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed No | 60c | 56.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 74c | 54.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 64c | 54.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 23c | 46.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 45.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 54c | 41.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 36.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 35.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 62c | 33.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 74c | 32.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 30.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 29.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 57c | 26.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 19.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…6c65backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 13.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.