Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f305099c4a014e3838cfdd50e1061a232297fc69b5946a17bc4703d3e4ad1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 341.72$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 49c | 230.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 71c | 225.72$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 30c | 219.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.49 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 69c | 165.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 160.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 141.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 52c | 139.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 136.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 34c | 122.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 107.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 24c | 104.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 11c | 99.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 70c | 97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 44c | 86.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 46c | 82.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 79.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 13c | 78.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 73.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 73.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 70.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 72c | 67.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 33c | 67.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 66c | 66.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 45c | 60.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 57c | 59.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 49.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 47.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 49c | 44.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 80c | 43.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 42.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 27c | 40.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 34c | 35.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 33.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 54c | 29.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 68c | 28.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 70c | 27.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 70c | 27.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…5d59backed Yes | 71c | 27.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 26.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 59c | 24.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 69c | 23.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 66c | 21.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 62c | 21.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…b2b8backed Yes | 53c | 20.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 19.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 73c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.