Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82cdd216bbc2aaa1195e71e20f9266ed6f6211484f621bbe8052b55ec7880574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 76c | 1,484$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.74 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 1c | 1,165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 766.69$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 77c | 427.71$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 310.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 172.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 142.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 8c | 138$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 134.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 27c | 124.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 123.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 89.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 30c | 62.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 60.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 54.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 24c | 44.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 77c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 22.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 78c | 13.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.