Serie A · resolved market
Will Inter Milan vs. Napoli End in a Draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82dad6ca2c42e1219529dac4a936b4b9b419e6ed1ed718b4ffb21cc8c582efa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 20c | 2,467$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 67c | 256.7$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.71 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 29c | 244.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 48c | 233.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 48c | 232.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 73c | 145.63$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 67c | 39.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08dc…6ef8backed Yes | 34c | 39.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…eb17backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…0c05backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Inter Milan vs. Napoli End in a Draw?this page
- Will Inter Milan Beat Napoli?No won
- Will Napoli Beat Inter Milan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.