Serie A · resolved market
Will Napoli Beat Inter Milan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf3f3e59d7ed05e31d40d45a09e09df36be39f97b8243b39f589cfa2ebc83b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 9c | 561.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 4c | 389.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed No | 72c | 348.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 28c | 337.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fa…ac91backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab1…feffbacked Yes | 32c | 260.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 69c | 199.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 29c | 170.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…45cabacked No | 70c | 108.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 78.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…09bdbacked No | 70c | 76.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…a83fbacked No | 71c | 74.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…328fbacked No | 70c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…a908backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…4773backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7659…b7f2backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef8a…6ffdbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…1953backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…3423backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b1…b550backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napoli Beat Inter Milan?this page
- Will Inter Milan Beat Napoli?No won
- Will Inter Milan vs. Napoli End in a Draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.