Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82f34e749e9dc038085e6891b1fa60b898bf8b080ab7ba0533be6e46597bf1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 1,212$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.06 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 39c | 386$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 384.81$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 379.05$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 187.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 80c | 175.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 171.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 57c | 158.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 150.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…db12backed Yes | 10c | 150.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 118.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 27c | 113.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked Yes | 41c | 109.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 97.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 43c | 96.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 49c | 93.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 92.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 85.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 82.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 51c | 78.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 42c | 72.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 68.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 42c | 65.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 46c | 64.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 45c | 55.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 48.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 35c | 48.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 44.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 44.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 32c | 40.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 36.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 56c | 34.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 34.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 41c | 28.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 56c | 27.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 39c | 26.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 53c | 24.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed No | 53c | 22.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…332dbacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…f8afbacked No | 61c | 20.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 60c | 20.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.