Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82faa85a74205e0c03ab778d932b3c54d197751d59919565ec6e1422cd7bd9dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d26…43d2backed No | 19c | 6,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…e110backed Yes | 45c | 2,465$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af0…a793backed No | 55c | 2,462$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 2c | 768.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 6c | 459.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 73c | 220.22$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 218.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 22c | 166.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…5369backed Yes | 67c | 149.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes | 49c | 121.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 53c | 120.83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 21c | 109.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 14c | 82.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…dd08backed Yes | 80c | 75.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…0f5abacked Yes | 75c | 73.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…1ee8backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 72c | 64.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…e1bdbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…1afebacked No | 38c | 49.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 42c | 43.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…2770backed Yes | 75c | 40.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 72c | 37.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 71c | 37.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed No | 64c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…42a3backed Yes | 75c | 27.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…7180backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f54ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 54c | 24.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 45c | 23.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 52c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…a9d9backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…e4c9backed No | 55c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.