Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8303b8b785b2c45a26466d8ff8a523b510022c8fdbbc2482ab3c97784b10e69c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,598 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Yes | 77c | 3,234$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.2 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 12c | 2,452$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.19 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 19c | 1,235$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.25 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 8c | 1,200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 157 | 35.7%56 W · 101 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 23c | 963.39$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 22c | 933.29$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.32 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 22c | 904.68$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 182 | 59.3%108 W · 74 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 78c | 899.97$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 23c | 894.77$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.92 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 78c | 794$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.68 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 77c | 671.99$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed No | 10c | 626.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 271 | 41.7%113 W · 158 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 12c | 489.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511a…9745backed Yes | 78c | 458.79$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed No | 24c | 312$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 68c | 297.18$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 23c | 271.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 14c | 265.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 24c | 251.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 77c | 210.35$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 12c | 157.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 23c | 149.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 77c | 148$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 204 | 25%51 W · 153 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 34c | 79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 66c | 79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…2106backed Yes | 67c | 76.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c03…949bbacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 105 | 79%83 W · 22 L | +22.7wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x289b…714ebacked No | 23c | 57.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 20c | 50.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 78c | 34.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…aa35backed Yes | 78c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…ff32backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Yes | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…2b46backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…1327backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…2a11backed Yes | 77c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will Derby County FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.