Movies · resolved market
Will a trailer for Marvel's Wolverine premiere at SDCC 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x832c71344dff85d478d544a63728adfec230c26d7b381ead1781cb7267deaa2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8469…dab0backed No | 18c | 629.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…e9a7backed No | 8c | 192.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 79c | 135.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 70c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 17c | 66.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 50.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…b4aabacked Yes | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 40.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a trailer for Marvel's Wolverine premiere at SDCC 2026?this page
- Will a trailer for Avengers: Doomsday premiere at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will a trailer for Blade Runner 2099 premiere at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will a trailer for God of War Laufey premiere at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will a trailer for Marvel Tōkon: Fighting Souls premiere at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will a trailer for Spider-Man: Brand New Day premiere at SDCC 2026?Yes won
- Will a trailer for The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power Season 3 premiere at SDCC 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.