Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x832e15ae8779c1991be7eb6429feb15bf77aa506bc2805c35715a065f4033c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 1,116$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.68 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 48c | 581.62$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.77 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 441.76$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 346$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 44c | 239.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 221.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 56c | 207$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 201.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 44c | 199.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 54c | 195.24$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 48c | 194$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 46c | 185.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 161.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 50c | 135$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 55c | 132.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 116.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 40c | 115.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 49c | 110.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 67.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 42c | 63.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 61.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 49.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 43.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked No | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 38.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 37.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 52c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…de1abacked Yes | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 50c | 21.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 54c | 21.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 57c | 20.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 53c | 20.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 19.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.