Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdf8a973f643c6bb672e6c9ba7a0a3fe4a21394145fb3d4685609160495141de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 2,803$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 49c | 829.99$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.87 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 45c | 390.18$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.15 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 58c | 346.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.95 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 40c | 291.86$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 220.29$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 219.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 70c | 210.3$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 49c | 208.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 197$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 194.11$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 66c | 193.74$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 182.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 34c | 178.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 173.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 143.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 69c | 138$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 61c | 134.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 113.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 102$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 61c | 91.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 80.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 75.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 75.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 58c | 71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 60c | 58.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…3de1backed No | 31c | 57.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 36c | 54.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 31c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 43.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 25c | 41.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 65c | 35.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 34.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c578backed Yes | 30c | 34.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 34.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 30.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 27.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…231abacked Yes | 80c | 26.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 21.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 19.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 18.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 72c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.