Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837328840b40d1e6824eeabf2608888da23ac9c9024b747e7a8e8489a2d72ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 3,077$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.74 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 741.55$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.67 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 272.58$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Yes | 31c | 258.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 17c | 96.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 24c | 72.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4024…4f45backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…6937backed No | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 77c | 29.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 69c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked No | 79c | 19.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-05?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.