Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x839ffcd0efc91a775638bbdfa8f98747faf7251a481ec612768fd2b31e0cf450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 76c | 617.94$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 363.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 71c | 221.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 172.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed No | 70c | 172.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 141.15$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 121.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 104.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 100.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 70c | 92.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 43c | 86.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 57c | 83.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 34c | 81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 39c | 68.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 65.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 63.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 58c | 59.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 56.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 54.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 38c | 53.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 22c | 48.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 65c | 48.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 47.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 43c | 46.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 45.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 66c | 43.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 62c | 40.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 74c | 40.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 34.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 37c | 29.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 36c | 27.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 27.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 59c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 24.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 66c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 70c | 22.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 19.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 59c | 17.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 77c | 16.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 64-65°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.