Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2c9a481d62d6bc4c9a7c4de4ed701b46462ab54ab06732ccbf445292df253bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 0c | 7,453$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 31c | 154.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 138.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 50c | 99.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 86.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 82.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 36c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 54c | 72.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 36c | 67.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 65.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 55.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 55.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 55c | 53.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 64c | 48.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 47.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 45.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 46c | 44.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 56c | 43.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 42.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 39.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 38c | 39.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 44c | 36.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 54c | 32.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 52c | 30.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 26.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 70c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 65c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 19.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 76c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 64-65°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.