CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Liquid vs. paiN
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83a093049e0d1a50077ae7302a05e4b218fa8823fe69831eb182e527dd6d4d40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liquidof Liquid, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Liquid | 56c | 13,935$7,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,080.48 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…3e9ebacked paiN | 44c | 13,517$5,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,897.22 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Liquid | 60c | 2,878$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.73 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Liquid | 74c | 1,882$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.43 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed paiN | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed paiN | 27c | 1,311$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.52 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…3607backed paiN | 40c | 1,230$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed paiN | 32c | 1,033$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.44 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…b570backed Liquid | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868a…a5cabacked paiN | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed paiN | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…a041backed Liquid | 58c | 730$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed paiN | 6c | 714.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…a4e1backed Liquid | 59c | 665$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4603…d9bcbacked paiN | 42c | 570$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked paiN | 36c | 500.45$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Liquid | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed paiN | 44c | 493.75$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed paiN | 44c | 477.27$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…e8bfbacked paiN | 42c | 465$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d2…67b4backed paiN | 42c | 460$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…22efbacked paiN | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Liquid | 62c | 370$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…c05fbacked Liquid | 59c | 335$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked paiN | 40c | 332.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…6d1abacked paiN | 42c | 330$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Liquid | 59c | 296.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Liquid | 77c | 294.42$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Liquid | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b4…d8b1backed Liquid | 58c | 270$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Liquid | 76c | 264.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 524 | 56.3%295 W · 229 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked paiN | 41c | 238.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed paiN | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed paiN | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Liquid | 74c | 193.62$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Liquid | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed paiN | 20c | 123.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed paiN | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…c1c6backed paiN | 42c | 95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed paiN | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Liquid | 67c | 77.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Liquid | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0533…ce16backed paiN | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Liquid | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 225 | 56%126 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed paiN | 41c | 67.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…33debacked paiN | 46c | 65.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…9191backed Liquid | 77c | 58.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…1967backed paiN | 41c | 48.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Liquid | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Liquid | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Liquid | 59c | 38.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…2444backed paiN | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…c49cbacked paiN | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Liquid | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Liquid | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Liquid | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed paiN | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Liquid | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c6…7624backed Liquid | 78c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Liquid | 59c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.