NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83b805a79075677ee0256bcd5035aef4d435c986f23d6b85ac2b80aef650d966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 53c | 2,600$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.82 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 2,005$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.22 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,114$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.27 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 46c | 588.77$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.83 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 505.55$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 62c | 377.29$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.91 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 40c | 350.33$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.5 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Over | 54c | 350$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.7 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 197.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.3 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 54c | 137.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 46c | 121$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 57c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 19c | 99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Over | 60c | 88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 19c | 79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 47c | 61.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 76c | 59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 48c | 56.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 42c | 54.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Under | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…7c64backed Over | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…3401backed Over | 52c | 24.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…552cbacked Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 54c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8831…17b0backed Over | 52c | 23.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…add1backed Over | 52c | 21.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…ebc4backed Over | 52c | 20.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Stars: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. StarsStars won
- Flames vs. Stars: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flames vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
- Flames vs. Stars: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.