TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof BetBoom Team, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,351

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,509 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd250…8e3bbacked BetBoom Team46c17,531$7,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,994.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BetBoom Team49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45028159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Natus Vincere54c4,379$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.5215144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6111…4742backed BetBoom Team51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.964957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Natus Vincere54c3,704$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.73351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Natus Vincere54c3,333$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.3334051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Natus Vincere51c2,744$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.154951%25 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere49c2,171$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.7785851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked Natus Vincere52c2,042$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.521936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Natus Vincere55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9004843.8%21 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x623d…3aeebacked Natus Vincere51c1,745$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.11266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad4d…dd89backed BetBoom Team50c1,434$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.027736.4%28 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere53c1,270$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.1656243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9f…31e3backed Natus Vincere49c1,102$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.041145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0cc…ce77backed Natus Vincere54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.932445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Natus Vincere49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.332766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a1e…f992backed Natus Vincere54c663.02$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Natus Vincere54c648.15$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.157440.5%30 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.242145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c70…9a6cbacked BetBoom Team53c472.18$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f8…0457backed BetBoom Team50c460$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere49c459.99$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere54c405.58$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.5734154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed BetBoom Team50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca97…f3cebacked Natus Vincere54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1843754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Natus Vincere52c374.42$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7261449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed BetBoom Team48c307$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.298432.1%27 W · 57 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1c…8408backed Natus Vincere54c259.26$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.269046.7%42 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Natus Vincere49c221.1$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7625851.2%132 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed BetBoom Team46c217.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Natus Vincere53c199.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.9920838.9%81 W · 127 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Natus Vincere54c190$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.422752.9%120 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Natus Vincere52c166.15$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.757452.7%39 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed BetBoom Team55c119.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9937252.7%196 W · 176 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78fd…4b88backed Natus Vincere54c111.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked BetBoom Team49c101.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2132148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed BetBoom Team50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Natus Vincere54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.595255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x510e…b8e0backed Natus Vincere49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.632462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Natus Vincere50c76.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4120448%98 W · 106 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c5f…8eadbacked BetBoom Team46c65.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012655.6%70 W · 56 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Natus Vincere55c64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.815250%76 W · 76 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…ab49backed Natus Vincere49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.023246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d6…2998backed BetBoom Team50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c27…21a9backed Natus Vincere54c46.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.595470.4%38 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x101f…b386backed BetBoom Team50c40.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9532154.8%176 W · 145 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4e…9516backed Natus Vincere54c36.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere50c32.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0374549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Natus Vincere54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82450%12 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d4…40dfbacked Natus Vincere54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x305f…0386backed Natus Vincere54c27.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.752867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c04…2c55backed Natus Vincere49c25.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.014346.5%20 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed Natus Vincere65c22.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1212054.2%65 W · 55 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed BetBoom Team50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029656.1%166 W · 130 L+18.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.