Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83c8772400ad72a6d07de2bb03c3273898a4b7cdeba44f949d144df276f76a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof BetBoom Team, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd250…8e3bbacked BetBoom Team | 46c | 17,531$7,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,994.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked BetBoom Team | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 4,379$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009.52 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…4742backed BetBoom Team | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.96 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 3,333$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.33 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…d85abacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 2,744$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.15 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 2,171$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.77 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 2,042$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…3aeebacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 1,745$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…dd89backed BetBoom Team | 50c | 1,434$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.02 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 1,270$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.16 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…31e3backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 1,102$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 663.02$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 648.15$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.15 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…9a6cbacked BetBoom Team | 53c | 472.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…0457backed BetBoom Team | 50c | 460$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 459.99$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.4 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 405.58$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.57 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed BetBoom Team | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 374.42$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.72 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed BetBoom Team | 48c | 307$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.29 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 259.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 221.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed BetBoom Team | 46c | 217.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 166.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed BetBoom Team | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78fd…4b88backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked BetBoom Team | 49c | 101.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed BetBoom Team | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 76.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked BetBoom Team | 46c | 65.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…2998backed BetBoom Team | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 46.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed BetBoom Team | 50c | 40.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…9516backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 36.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 32.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…40dfbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305f…0386backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 27.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed BetBoom Team | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.