TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked BetBoom Team57c17,642$10,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,132.3428159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b7…500fbacked Natus Vincere36c4,420$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,817.062737%10 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6111…4742backed BetBoom Team48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9204957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Natus Vincere38c3,910$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.664951%25 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked BetBoom Team6c3,655$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3219847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere52c3,045$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.9685851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team46c3,034$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere53c2,981$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.0755751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1956…750ebacked Natus Vincere68c2,957$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.951323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere28c2,600$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,87281029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Natus Vincere29c2,500$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.9822727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere46c2,283$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.111,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere45c2,279$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.891,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked BetBoom Team55c2,264$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.5516945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed BetBoom Team72c2,100$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.9712351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere59c1,933$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.3577256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere37c1,708$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.085550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Natus Vincere26c1,500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11018550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed BetBoom Team77c1,422$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10016256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed BetBoom Team71c1,408$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked BetBoom Team62c1,347$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8367060%42 W · 28 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team62c1,223$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.051,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed BetBoom Team53c1,196$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.931835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed BetBoom Team46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007255.6%40 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere53c1,065$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.5489749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked BetBoom Team71c1,065$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.158469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed BetBoom Team48c1,032$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked BetBoom Team71c999.98$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.9912868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked Natus Vincere54c980.93$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.231421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-57.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe2cc…893cbacked BetBoom Team51c935.58$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.824343.6%106 W · 137 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked BetBoom Team57c857$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.4979341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BetBoom Team33c841.58$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.261,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked BetBoom Team6c827$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6250749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed BetBoom Team74c814.46$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.5121264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team71c795.83$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.921,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed BetBoom Team72c750$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54053758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked BetBoom Team71c718.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.494158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked BetBoom Team71c704.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40a2…844fbacked BetBoom Team60c700.51$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BetBoom Team46c700.17$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.171,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa6…dbd6backed BetBoom Team75c692.37$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.5422961.1%140 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d32…9dfcbacked Natus Vincere29c653.94$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+74.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked BetBoom Team31c646.94$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2410618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Natus Vincere30c643.8$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.6634051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere27c633.61$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.211,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Natus Vincere26c611.18$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.273148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Natus Vincere53c599$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.619948.5%48 W · 51 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed BetBoom Team45c588.01$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.214039.3%55 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed BetBoom Team57c572.31$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3253740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Natus Vincere41c560.98$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.9848539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Natus Vincere29c556.85$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.3612536%45 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b86…c943backed BetBoom Team75c530$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.5450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere55c509.2$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.92,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed BetBoom Team65c500$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.1674549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a90…1dddbacked BetBoom Team71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc20f…ab16backed BetBoom Team71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere25c499.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.9946535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…c00abacked BetBoom Team35c479.44$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702969%20 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Natus Vincere28c479.3$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.129143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Natus Vincere53c469.68$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.753951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere38c448.27$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.11,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x197f…611ebacked Natus Vincere67c439$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4513100%13 W · 0 L+4.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere50c438.33$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.751,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BetBoom Team50c436.7$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.741,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4008…a334backed Natus Vincere62c421$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.681492.9%13 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.27per pick66cpaid+43.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed BetBoom Team47c419.89$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.755040%20 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BetBoom Team37c415.28$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.751,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed BetBoom Team49c409.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010645.3%48 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed BetBoom Team21c400$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.520535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked BetBoom Team58c400$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23128050%140 W · 140 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere24c398.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.0277941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked Natus Vincere25c396$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2971936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere26c386.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.9935461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed Natus Vincere40c385.64$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.9612054.2%65 W · 55 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Natus Vincere25c379.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe252…5714backed Natus Vincere27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.374027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere43c351.5$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.392,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked BetBoom Team46c337.69$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3259254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c68…f274backed BetBoom Team75c333.33$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf353…692abacked BetBoom Team46c326.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed BetBoom Team48c309.58$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15067555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Natus Vincere29c306.52$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.6344149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked BetBoom Team8c305.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1110728%30 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Natus Vincere58c259.01$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9920740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed Natus Vincere57c252$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.363046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Natus Vincere41c249.32$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14714652.1%76 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed BetBoom Team74c242.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2421353.5%114 W · 99 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BetBoom Team49c240$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.81,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Natus Vincere30c233.33$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.3357735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed BetBoom Team52c223.14$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11516152.2%84 W · 77 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed BetBoom Team67c223.01$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed BetBoom Team49c215.8$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.876725.4%17 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae16…7111backed BetBoom Team75c215$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.257047.1%33 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…ed2bbacked Natus Vincere75c214.99$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.31872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb27d…3cc3backed BetBoom Team48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2fe…695dbacked BetBoom Team48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017349.1%85 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Natus Vincere45c203.37$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4316242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8be…3d54backed Natus Vincere56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889951.5%51 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Natus Vincere36c200$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.910560%63 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed BetBoom Team58c199.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.