Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e586512c6f99770a1d797e685a68aa81cfa87b132ebbfff143b43bd47285e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalmychataof Most Wanted, Kalmychata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7600…4478backed Most Wanted | 46c | 5,000$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.98 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Kalmychata | 53c | 3,054$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.83 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Kalmychata | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.75 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Most Wanted | 52c | 1,519$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.23 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Kalmychata | 52c | 1,449$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.64 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Most Wanted | 61c | 1,161$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b6…3779backed Most Wanted | 58c | 1,070$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45b…1c5cbacked Kalmychata | 42c | 1,070$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb839…0f33backed Kalmychata | 42c | 1,011$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069d…0308backed Kalmychata | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…8032backed Most Wanted | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Most Wanted | 60c | 897$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.2 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Most Wanted | 56c | 803.31$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.49 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Kalmychata | 79c | 583.44$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Most Wanted | 5c | 549.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked Kalmychata | 76c | 421.7$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Most Wanted | 27c | 358.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Most Wanted | 46c | 284.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.95 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…633ebacked Kalmychata | 54c | 279.36$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Kalmychata | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Kalmychata | 54c | 204.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45b…58f5backed Kalmychata | 75c | 201.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Kalmychata | 43c | 177.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…44adbacked Most Wanted | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…0505backed Most Wanted | 65c | 152.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…7fb8backed Most Wanted | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…a74ebacked Most Wanted | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…eda5backed Most Wanted | 60c | 82.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Most Wanted | 67c | 75.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…c017backed Most Wanted | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Kalmychata | 45c | 64.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Kalmychata | 80c | 63.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed Most Wanted | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Kalmychata | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Kalmychata | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Kalmychata | 33c | 48.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Most Wanted | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kalmychata | 35c | 43.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…68fcbacked Kalmychata | 54c | 42.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Most Wanted | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Kalmychata | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…f9b5backed Most Wanted | 59c | 27.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Kalmychata | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…e30ebacked Kalmychata | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata - Game 1 WinnerKalmychata won
- Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata - Game 2 WinnerKalmychata won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.