Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83fb35e005806cc95608f2a46a8afb157ce8ead95ea775a3c78ef21a141d6a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 5c | 585.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 64c | 263.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.68 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 248.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 75c | 228.15$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 207.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 20c | 206.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 34c | 191$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 183.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 166.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 138.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 136.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 64c | 133.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 10c | 133$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 118.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 105.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 89.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 37c | 83.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 69c | 83.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 31c | 76.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked Yes | 66c | 69.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 74c | 65.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 51.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 50c | 50.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 79c | 42.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 29c | 35.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 33.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 35c | 32.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…e9cabacked No | 65c | 31.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 58c | 28.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…40d5backed Yes | 39c | 27.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 66c | 18.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 79c | 18.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 16.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.