Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8405dd350683da9de462ea552b97af0d489dd19d6bc5e7db977fbed8c1c1d057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Team Nemesis, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Team Nemesis | 40c | 4,996$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 2,289$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.51 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 2,285$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.06 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Nemesis | 36c | 1,294$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.05 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 1,068$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Nemesis | 2c | 931$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Nemesis | 32c | 628.06$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 537.14$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 347.17$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Nemesis | 21c | 317.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 295.8$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Team Nemesis | 30c | 253.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 250$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Team Nemesis | 22c | 183.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Nemesis | 18c | 167.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Nemesis | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…18ffbacked Team Nemesis | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Team Nemesis | 33c | 42.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Team Nemesis | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Team Nemesis | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Nigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.