TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4572…83ffbacked Nigma Galaxy60c6,581$3,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,926.4453451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Nemesis61c6,518$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.948954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Nigma Galaxy64c4,953$3,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,171.6413155%72 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Nemesis60c2,446$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.0534468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Team Nemesis46c1,920$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.5436442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Team Nemesis53c1,873$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.116149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Nemesis36c1,500$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96039936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Nemesis48c1,484$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.927143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy51c1,403$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.591,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Team Nemesis52c1,341$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.881118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd202…964dbacked Nigma Galaxy3c1,140$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.06626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d39…b8a0backed Nigma Galaxy38c1,035$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.292934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Team Nemesis51c1,000$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.259250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Nigma Galaxy44c872.47$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.7514947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98ff…4303backed Team Nemesis47c856.78$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.061030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Team Nemesis50c794.67$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.6756848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Nigma Galaxy63c791.68$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.912050%10 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf7…aba5backed Nigma Galaxy58c690.16$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b7…fe56backed Nigma Galaxy48c616.72$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.51520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-72.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Nigma Galaxy54c503.66$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.0438049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis37c492.31$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.792,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Nigma Galaxy44c468.62$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.348627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Nigma Galaxy22c462.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed Nigma Galaxy54c382.91$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.772548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy42c340$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Nemesis46c330$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.231545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x935e…d6e4backed Team Nemesis79c320$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2850%4 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Nemesis47c256.94$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9429245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Team Nemesis69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.52948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c7…d9cdbacked Nigma Galaxy45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Team Nemesis56c214.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2923465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Nigma Galaxy54c212.94$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8420361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Team Nemesis47c212.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7954445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Nemesis53c209.57$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9862841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d4…3ad4backed Nigma Galaxy43c200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858149.4%40 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd4…ea9abacked Nigma Galaxy54c153.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836145.9%28 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Team Nemesis61c129.84$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.113053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Nigma Galaxy52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1528244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Team Nemesis62c98.39$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.397538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fd…104ebacked Nigma Galaxy59c90.68$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.52552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Nigma Galaxy54c90$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9670236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb261…f3a0backed Team Nemesis44c87$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.067554.7%41 W · 34 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Team Nemesis42c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611943.7%52 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Team Nemesis38c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.42917.2%5 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Team Nemesis46c68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.727345.2%33 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Nemesis50c64.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1673841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed Team Nemesis44c56.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6712965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce70…22dabacked Nigma Galaxy53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…6fd5backed Nigma Galaxy57c35.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Team Nemesis57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0933743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed Team Nemesis48c32.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.733145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Team Nemesis36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.23548.6%17 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Nigma Galaxy58c27.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611054.5%60 W · 50 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ea5…6696backed Nigma Galaxy67c27.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.321471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Nigma Galaxy62c16.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.383452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.