Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x152d988777066111f587a4903127b56a03973e3d6606342195cac226ea2c876d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 6,581$3,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,926.44 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Team Nemesis | 61c | 6,518$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.9 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 4,953$3,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,171.64 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Team Nemesis | 60c | 2,446$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.05 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 1,920$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.54 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Team Nemesis | 53c | 1,873$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.1 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Nemesis | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Nemesis | 48c | 1,484$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.9 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 1,403$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.59 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 1,341$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 3c | 1,140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 1,035$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.29 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 1,000$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.2 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 872.47$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.75 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ff…4303backed Team Nemesis | 47c | 856.78$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 794.67$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…49febacked Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 791.68$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf7…aba5backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 690.16$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…fe56backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 616.72$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 503.66$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.04 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 37c | 492.31$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.79 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 468.62$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.34 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 462.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 382.91$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 340$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 330$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…d6e4backed Team Nemesis | 79c | 320$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Team Nemesis | 47c | 256.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.94 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Team Nemesis | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…d9cdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 212.94$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Nemesis | 47c | 212.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Nemesis | 53c | 209.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 153.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Team Nemesis | 61c | 129.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 98.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 90.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Team Nemesis | 44c | 87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Team Nemesis | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Team Nemesis | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Team Nemesis | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 64.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Nemesis | 44c | 56.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…22dabacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 35.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Team Nemesis | 48c | 32.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Team Nemesis | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea5…6696backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 27.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 16.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Nigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.