Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8415b696891baa85559d61c82c9fa5b82715c1eff52ceddc1f49a57dfd80c734
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jongof Jodar, Jong
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0979…8d9bbacked Jodar | 66c | 5,218$3,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,443.79 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jong | 34c | 5,140$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,391.6 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Jodar | 33c | 822.39$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.39 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jong | 36c | 681.95$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.82 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Jong | 36c | 442.23$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.98 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Jodar | 63c | 377.03$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.57 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Jodar | 64c | 306.48$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.66 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Jong | 67c | 292.6$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Jodar | 50c | 291.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Jong | 67c | 269.77$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Jodar | 66c | 252.93$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Jong | 33c | 229.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked Jong | 50c | 229.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.64 | 84 | 73.8%62 W · 22 L | +24.4wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…bd20backed Jodar | 65c | 225.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Jodar | 49c | 204.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 135 | 63%85 W · 50 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Jong | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Jodar | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 184 | 54.3%100 W · 84 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Jong | 67c | 126.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Jong | 67c | 117.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Jong | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Jodar | 65c | 89.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Jodar | 67c | 88.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Jong | 34c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Jodar | 64c | 68.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…3820backed Jodar | 64c | 62.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e98…236bbacked Jong | 37c | 56.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Jong | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Jong | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72af…c833backed Jong | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33f4…21ebbacked Jodar | 64c | 29.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Jong (+1.5)this page
- Jodar vs. Jong: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de JongRafael Jodar won
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs JongJong won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.