Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x841cd1da50c06ad3a64858266c401a84a6b7ee2b7fec9f0fed34bd7593396a0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ad1…7e8abacked Yes | 69c | 359.96$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 27c | 299.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 37c | 198.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 51c | 165.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3e…9bc9backed Yes | 74c | 148.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 60c | 137.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 74c | 134.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…1066backed Yes | 76c | 131.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 124$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed No | 56c | 89.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked Yes | 37c | 61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…c996backed Yes | 50c | 60.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed3…e03dbacked Yes | 45c | 56.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…57b4backed No | 61c | 52.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…7a7dbacked Yes | 59c | 51.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 65c | 46.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 43c | 39.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafda…b8debacked No | 62c | 34.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 55c | 31.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b4…702cbacked Yes | 78c | 28.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…1f72backed Yes | 56c | 23.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46b…77a2backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…12debacked Yes | 73c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 25°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 28-29°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.