Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Porto vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84265e7b68ffe6d6b3c5c9a9e5597e0814180ff6127b65bfaa31121b6d8e8cbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 57c | 2,800$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 1,971$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.64 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 43c | 999.95$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 38c | 917.94$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.38 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 44c | 702.27$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Over | 57c | 492.47$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.47 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 58c | 477.59$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.59 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 42c | 443.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Over | 57c | 424.75$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.75 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Over | 56c | 354.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 43c | 347.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 57c | 315.2$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.69 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 312.28$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Over | 56c | 173.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Over | 57c | 138.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 44c | 105.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a2…8cb0backed Over | 57c | 105.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 43c | 104$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 43c | 87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 64.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…e997backed Under | 44c | 56.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 54c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb2…e990backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Under | 43c | 33.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under | 43c | 33.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 43c | 33.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 57c | 26.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Under | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 54c | 23.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…3232backed Over | 56c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Porto vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.