Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f57f4fa9bca63423941a12ac98e2cdf9bf2c8a111fc193349f07650a961dc60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Portoof FC Porto, OGC Nice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed OGC Nice | 55c | 6,990$3,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,813.47 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked FC Porto | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked FC Porto | 45c | 2,250$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked OGC Nice | 58c | 1,210$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.6 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked FC Porto | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.2 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked FC Porto | 40c | 675.38$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked OGC Nice | 60c | 660.54$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.32 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked FC Porto | 39c | 440.85$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.92 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed OGC Nice | 55c | 340.7$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.43 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…ac01backed FC Porto | 39c | 207.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed OGC Nice | 35c | 206.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked OGC Nice | 56c | 193.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked FC Porto | 45c | 191.84$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed OGC Nice | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed FC Porto | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked FC Porto | 38c | 131.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…ed5bbacked FC Porto | 77c | 129.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked FC Porto | 51c | 127$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked OGC Nice | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed FC Porto | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed FC Porto | 45c | 92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed FC Porto | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked FC Porto | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed OGC Nice | 56c | 50.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed FC Porto | 43c | 42.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…5b32backed FC Porto | 46c | 37.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…12d4backed FC Porto | 46c | 32.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…5a82backed OGC Nice | 55c | 31.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed OGC Nice | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed FC Porto | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed OGC Nice | 59c | 22.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)this page
- FC Porto vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Porto vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.