Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Lárnakas vs. KF Shkëndija 79 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x842e761561726d2114802c155564cfb73ce17bc61a77ff4518ec5a1882492a7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 1,206$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.51 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 79c | 1,154$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.86 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 8c | 1,068$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 665.01$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.82 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 459$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 19c | 306$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 21c | 280$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +312.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed No | 79c | 144$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Yes | 23c | 136$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 78c | 128.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 22c | 89.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 76c | 83.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Yes | 21c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked No | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…4b3ebacked No | 80c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Lárnakas vs. KF Shkëndija 79 end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2025-12-18?Yes won
- Will KF Shkëndija 79 win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.