Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8452cbef3521089bd3c4bee48395ac5571a0d787f82bbb4fb6570bb88e895a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebae…fb79backed Yes | 65c | 2,242$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 35c | 1,352$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.4 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 35c | 1,082$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.47 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 59c | 1,012$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.6 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 63c | 899.89$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.96 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 816.93$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 32c | 545.8$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.28 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 39c | 514.6$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 30c | 333.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 64c | 324.14$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 36c | 276.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 64c | 241.61$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Yes | 67c | 238.83$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 35c | 210.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 35c | 112.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Yes | 66c | 107.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 36c | 102.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…af14backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…1ec3backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 37c | 76.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 63c | 76.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 62c | 55.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516e…00afbacked No | 33c | 54.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…b96cbacked Yes | 50c | 54.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 37c | 51.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 36c | 51.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 36c | 42.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…d295backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…9e30backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 61c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…35fabacked Yes | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.