Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42ed902535d9761581f74a74110cb42a71cc9166ace5ff8372c52bc6c9b1f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5af4…183cbacked Under | 42c | 2,257$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 79c | 1,334$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.8 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 744.46$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 699.33$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 23c | 678.11$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.21 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 57c | 509.44$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.87 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 280$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 58c | 200.76$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 59c | 145.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 63c | 106.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 37c | 96.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 96.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 64c | 89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 36c | 89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Under | 42c | 83.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 80.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 59c | 59.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 58c | 55.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Under | 38c | 51.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 60c | 50.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 57c | 39.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Over | 62c | 37.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Over | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…96aebacked Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…ef8ebacked Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.