Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ab5b21f7347c1531490c8a612b84df6782d9c386146a3f498341d9a65efb60b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 3,451$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 60c | 3,354$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 1,258$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.9 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 79c | 498.43$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.76 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 21c | 317.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.89 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 19c | 203.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.83 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 26c | 189.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 37c | 182.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 147.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 116$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 23c | 106.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…12c5backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Over | 45c | 30.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Under | 77c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 78c | 25.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 77c | 24.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 77cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.