Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Campos do Jordao Women: Lan Mi vs Marjorie Souza
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x846de01033ee8f49d9e420b97b9b3331f084ce824ccd6feffe1612cf6ea331b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lan Miof Lan Mi, Marjorie Souza
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Marjorie Souza | 28c | 2,250$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.99 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Lan Mi | 66c | 1,917$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.43 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lan Mi | 72c | 1,372$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.6 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Marjorie Souza | 6c | 847.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 366 | 21.6%79 W · 287 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Marjorie Souza | 34c | 599.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Lan Mi | 72c | 505$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Marjorie Souza | 33c | 321.07$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Marjorie Souza | 26c | 252.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Marjorie Souza | 28c | 186.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Marjorie Souza | 33c | 179.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Lan Mi | 68c | 157$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Marjorie Souza | 27c | 144.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Marjorie Souza | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Marjorie Souza | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Marjorie Souza | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marjorie Souza | 34c | 31.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Lan Mi | 67c | 24.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,226 | 52%637 W · 589 L | +44.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Lan Mi | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Lan Mi | 75c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Lan Mi | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF W15 Campos do Jordao Women: Lan Mi vs Marjorie Souzathis page
- ITF W15 Campos do Jordao Women: Completed Match: Lan Mi vs Marjorie SouzaYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.