MLB · resolved market
Will the Seattle Mariners be eliminated in the Division Series?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8480380d06877f23090619b5c44f121802c231f0132eb7584fd1092020dc4eda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,370$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.6 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 47c | 1,090$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.59 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 62c | 334.1$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…4347backed No | 72c | 250.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 51c | 216$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 208$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f9…edbfbacked No | 53c | 116$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 58c | 55.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…f7d3backed Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Seattle Mariners be eliminated in the Division Series?this page
- Will the Seattle Mariners be eliminated in the League Championship Series?Yes won
- Will the Seattle Mariners lose the World Series?No won
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 MLB World Series?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.