TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,933 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x357e…e1d4backed Toronto Blue Jays0c64,300$64 inLost-$64.380%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays11c2,099$238 inLost-$237.5111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles76c687.49$519 inWon+$168.253,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Toronto Blue Jays21c572$120 inLost-$120.1291252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0874…6277backed Baltimore Orioles12c449.6$54 inWon+$395.652638.5%10 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.19per pick20cpaid+112.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles46c407.44$186 inWon+$221.612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles60c176.62$107 inWon+$69.858,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac15…75a4backed Baltimore Orioles47c106.38$50 inWon+$56.386051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb875…76c7backed Toronto Blue Jays23c64.54$15 inLost-$153060%18 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Baltimore Orioles41c51.52$21 inWon+$30.141,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles36c27.87$10 inWon+$17.8410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Toronto Blue Jays62c26.78$17 inLost-$16.62,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Baltimore Orioles79c15$12 inWon+$3.151,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.