TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,570 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cec…d241backed Toronto Blue Jays63c1,587$1,000 inWon+$587.38256.1%46 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles37c1,400$518 inLost-$5186,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles37c300$111 inLost-$1118,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays62c288.93$179 inWon+$109.7911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Toronto Blue Jays63c238.1$150 inWon+$88.13775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.4wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Baltimore Orioles37c151.26$56 inLost-$55.9623948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf35backed Baltimore Orioles38c113.68$43 inLost-$43.25644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays65c89.8$58 inWon+$31.478,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Baltimore Orioles38c58$22 inLost-$22.0446854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Baltimore Orioles38c58$22 inLost-$22.0472154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles37c50$18 inLost-$18.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles36c38.22$14 inLost-$13.763,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Toronto Blue Jays63c23.26$15 inWon+$8.6144347.9%212 W · 231 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays64c22.25$14 inWon+$84,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays63c16$10 inWon+$5.921,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.