Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84a7c446f96978a2b8df913c0e7d63a43657170b3d8b7ae58f0cda3f05c6944a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 8,702$4,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,801.52 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Over | 40c | 6,799$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 31c | 2,812$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.9 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 43c | 707.75$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.33 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 58c | 520.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 43c | 445.9$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.65 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…dbd2backed Under | 43c | 362.79$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 325.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 46c | 323.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 49c | 305$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 49c | 299.45$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 238.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 20c | 204.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…1938backed Under | 58c | 173.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 33c | 127.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d2…d2dcbacked Over | 44c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd684…7e92backed Over | 36c | 99.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…6516backed Over | 47c | 97.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 96.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 54c | 90.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…5f40backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 60c | 46.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 53c | 40.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 34.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 64c | 32.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 59c | 20.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.