NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Austria vs. Hungary
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84b5018902d09572e39f2655692d9a0c099141bca67cad563eab7f51ee880907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Austriaof Austria, Hungary
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ca4…db18backed Austria | 78c | 3,043$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…584ebacked Hungary | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…762abacked Hungary | 19c | 1,114$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Austria | 68c | 1,112$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.81 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Austria | 70c | 814.34$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.08 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Hungary | 20c | 755$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Hungary | 28c | 577.1$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.05 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…1d03backed Austria | 77c | 461.56$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Hungary | 24c | 342.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Hungary | 32c | 308.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Hungary | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 137 | 49.6%68 W · 69 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Austria | 79c | 223.29$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Austria | 74c | 222.35$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Hungary | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Hungary | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Hungary | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Austria | 71c | 139.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…928abacked Hungary | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hungary | 21c | 100.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Hungary | 18c | 74.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hungary | 23c | 50.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Austria | 74c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…f799backed Austria | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.