Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bd724dd7204eda4f21ecbebf2a7eb2ab7ce8499988c6492ec5dfc44ad988af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 59c | 181.87$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 45c | 128$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 28c | 107.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4b50backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 53c | 47.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 48c | 28.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 47c | 27.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 47c | 27.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will CZ post 40-59 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.