Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Otto Virtanen vs Nicolas Mejia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85546eba591f149a6060c6b064149cd1cfadb73872bc89aacdad8b49954dc9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mejiaof Virtanen, Mejia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Virtanen | 2c | 885$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Virtanen | 7c | 727.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Virtanen | 6c | 449.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Mejia | 69c | 384.6$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.08 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virtanen | 53c | 341.39$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.64 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Virtanen | 21c | 285$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Mejia | 66c | 269.94$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Virtanen | 67c | 245.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.81 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Virtanen | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Virtanen | 38c | 122.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Mejia | 56c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mejia | 54c | 114$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Mejia | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Mejia | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mejia | 37c | 97.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Virtanen | 71c | 89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 244 | 38.9%95 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Virtanen | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Virtanen | 71c | 70.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Virtanen | 70c | 56.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Mejia | 56c | 53.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Mejia | 37c | 52.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…6190backed Virtanen | 71c | 52.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…e026backed Virtanen | 33c | 46.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Mejia | 47c | 43.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Virtanen | 52c | 43.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Virtanen | 56c | 38.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…196bbacked Virtanen | 68c | 38.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…5769backed Virtanen | 55c | 35.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Mejia | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Virtanen | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Otto Virtanen vs Nicolas Mejiathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Virtanen vs MejiaMejia won
- Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Mejia (+1.5)Mejia won
- Virtanen vs. Mejia: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Virtanen vs. Mejia: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Virtanen vs. Mejia: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Virtanen vs. Mejia: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.