Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x855f869ed1b64247e34d26f3c57530a8464aa6af78e71be320d16a5c52112846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 1,179$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.47 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 310$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.9 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 273.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 244$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.12 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 243.17$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 237.88$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 214$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 191.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 23c | 181.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 174$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 159.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 124.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 75c | 87.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 87.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 22c | 72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 68.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 60.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 56.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 52.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 51.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 76c | 50.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 27c | 46.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 40c | 46.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb733…6cc4backed Yes | 33c | 45.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 40.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 35.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 76c | 34.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 31c | 32.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 40c | 31.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 30.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 61c | 29.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 23.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 58c | 22.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 67c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 22.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…9441backed No | 78c | 19.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.