Champions League · resolved market
Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x856027be4f161368107204b44c946f7cae12345aec8153882dd34b62df0fa6db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 691.65$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.31 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 62c | 404.43$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 49c | 279.87$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.93 | 472 | 46.8%221 W · 251 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 48c | 210.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…c62cbacked Under | 64c | 209.2$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 159.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 1,071 | 34.8%373 W · 698 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 50c | 158.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 32c | 153.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 127.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.77 | 676 | 49.4%334 W · 342 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 68c | 98.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 61c | 61.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 42c | 51.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 968 | 37.4%362 W · 606 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Under | 60c | 48.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 40c | 42.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 749 | 35.4%265 W · 484 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 43c | 40.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +82%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…6cedbacked Under | 62c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 52c | 23.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 3.5this page
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 4.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 5.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: Rīga FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-1.5)Ararat-Armenia FA won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-2.5)Ararat-Armenia FA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.