Champions League · resolved market
Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83c3790a5b0a5844195350160fc89397cde722379bc66122cc7635108eaab6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Under | 1c | 3,013$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…f1b6backed Under | 14c | 2,019$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 70c | 1,255$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.49 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 1,085$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.65 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 36c | 881.17$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.9 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 22c | 454.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 36c | 397.27$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.82 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…c62cbacked Under | 68c | 382.15$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 20c | 324.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 79c | 295.86$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 289.81$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.09 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 43c | 281.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 40c | 264$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 64c | 250$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Over | 16c | 186.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.98 | 122 | 19.7%24 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f66fbacked Under | 6c | 175.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…004dbacked Under | 13c | 140.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 62c | 130.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 123.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Under | 32c | 90.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 16c | 84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 45c | 69.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5a…4063backed Over | 76c | 65.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 53c | 34.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 66c | 30.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 46c | 23.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 55c | 22.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…45f1backed Under | 47c | 21.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 4.5this page
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 3.5Over won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: O/U 5.5Under won
- Rīga FC vs. Ararat-Armenia FA: Rīga FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-1.5)Ararat-Armenia FA won
- Spread: Rīga FC (-2.5)Ararat-Armenia FA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.