TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Ladies First" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,297 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01e9…5250backed Yes13c1,016$131 inLost-$130.8414037.1%52 W · 88 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes20c937.63$186 inLost-$185.599456.4%53 W · 41 L+12.1wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+4.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No78c694.54$541 inWon+$153.5219440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes19c151.88$29 inLost-$29.06476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed Yes22c83.9$19 inLost-$18.758658.1%50 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c78.71$13 inLost-$12.591,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8bb…4282backed No72c50$36 inWon+$141741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No73c38.35$28 inWon+$10.3611254.5%61 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No76c30.37$23 inWon+$7.2910436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.