Tennis · resolved market
ITF Wichita: Dana Guzman vs Lea Ma
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8580dc41bb788ad941d7195bebfef3dbdcb9828ea7cf8c4026aeb767562319c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dana Guzmanof Dana Guzman, Lea Ma
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Dana Guzman | 60c | 1,816$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.39 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Lea Ma | 41c | 677.73$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.67 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Lea Ma | 39c | 451.38$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.09 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lea Ma | 42c | 374.27$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lea Ma | 38c | 360.87$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Dana Guzman | 79c | 349.15$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 226 | 62.8%142 W · 84 L | +15.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Lea Ma | 28c | 197.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Lea Ma | 61c | 163.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…2d49backed Dana Guzman | 39c | 129.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Dana Guzman | 40c | 125.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lea Ma | 41c | 110.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Lea Ma | 61c | 83.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Lea Ma | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Dana Guzman | 68c | 73.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Dana Guzman | 35c | 53.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…98f1backed Dana Guzman | 39c | 51.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lea Ma | 62c | 49.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Lea Ma | 57c | 43.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Lea Ma | 66c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Dana Guzman | 62c | 37.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…69a5backed Dana Guzman | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 215 | 55.8%120 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Lea Ma | 63c | 26.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Lea Ma | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lea Ma | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Dana Guzman | 65c | 15.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.