Premier League · resolved market
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858450f4daaa68abd0e0a755de161a537862b8c2be2605a2e25213fed9c98df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 1,335$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.04 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 1c | 1,310$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 47c | 1,155$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.91 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 75c | 696.07$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.05 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 676.18$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.79 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 427.97$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 25c | 401.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.25 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 23c | 290$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.3 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 64c | 195.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 49c | 160.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 72c | 151.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 52c | 56.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 52.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 72c | 30.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 72c | 28.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 72c | 28.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…3418backed Under | 75c | 27.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 74cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Over | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 72c | 21.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 189 | 61.9%117 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 72c | 19.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 73 | 69.9%51 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 72c | 19.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 72c | 14.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.