Serie A · resolved market
US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85865377c3728f2ef206dd3e63ff45bf765e4b54c5dc23dee682d5811b2e8fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 67c | 2,980$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.11 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 29c | 1,248$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.92 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 39c | 1,100$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 39c | 1,032$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 62c | 997.89$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.15 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 20c | 625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 412.68$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 402.49$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Over | 39c | 385.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 13c | 309.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 36c | 277.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 61c | 260.87$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 61c | 242.45$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 38c | 151.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 61c | 135$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 255 | 56.5%144 W · 111 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 61c | 115$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 61c | 112$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 63c | 106$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 37c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 36c | 80.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed Over | 38c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 56.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Over | 38c | 52.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…b9ecbacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…f92abacked Over | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…14f0backed Over | 38c | 47.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 62c | 28.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…fc8abacked Under | 64c | 26.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7931…020abacked Under | 64c | 24.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc2…700bbacked Under | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5this page
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Cremonese vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.